Nowcasting and forecasting GDP in emerging markets using global financial and macroeconomic diffusion indexes

This paper contributes to the nascent literature on nowcasting and forecasting GDP in emerging market economies using big data methods. This is done by analyzing the usefulness of various dimension-reduction, machine learning and shrinkage methods, including sparse principal component analysis (SPCA), the elastic net, the least absolute shrinkage operator, and least angle regression when constructing predictions using latent global macroeconomic and financial factors (diffusion indexes) in a dynamic factor model (DFM). We also utilize a judgmental dimension-reduction method called the Bloomberg Relevance Index (BRI), which is an index that assigns a measure of importance to each variable in a dataset depending on the variable’s usage by market participants. Our empirical analysis shows that, when specified using dimension-reduction methods (particularly BRI and SPCA), DFMs yield superior predictions relative to both benchmark linear econometric models and simple DFMs. Moreover, global financial and macroeconomic (business cycle) diffusion indexes constructed using targeted predictors are found to be important in four of the five emerging market economies that we study (Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey). These findings point to the importance of spillover effects across emerging market economies, and underscore the significance of characterizing such linkages parsimoniously when utilizing high-dimensional global datasets.     

The reduction cost of nonperforming loan: evidence from China’s commercial bank

The nonperforming loans (NPLs) are co-generated by creating the profit in a bank, and this article build a joint production model to measure the reduction cost of nonperforming cost. By using a data set of China’s 13 commercial banks, the conclusions show that the reduction cost of NPLs is lower, which suggests that it is not a good choice for China’s commercial bank to hold the NPLs.     

Local poverty reduction in Chile and Mexico: The role of food manufacturing growth

This paper analyzes the relationship between local poverty and food manufacturing growth in Chile and Mexico using propensity score matching, differences in differences and spatial econometrics methods. We focus on food manufacturing as a sector with a number of characteristics that make it potentially pro-poor, and whose incentives for spatial distribution may either strengthen or dampen its poverty reduction potential. The overall results indicate growth in food manufacturing employment contributes to local poverty reduction.     

基于污染物通量超标排放的生态补偿方法

针对污染物通量核算生态补偿量方法中单位污染物削减成本忽略了污染物来源差异性以及污染物通量核算未考虑年内实际水文、水质特征的问题,从污染物削减成本和污染物通量两个方面对该方法进行改进。污染物削减成本按照污染物来源分为点源污水(主要为工业废水、城市生活污水)和农村非点源污水(主要为农村生活污水、农业生产污水)削减成本两部分,根据不同废水来源的处理成本,按污染物排放量比重加权平均得到削减成本;同时,对年内划分水期,分别核算污染物通量。选取沱江支流上的濑溪河渝川缓冲区进行实例验证。结果表明:核算结果基本能够反映区域污染特征,核算金额也更加真实可信。     

An effective hybrid variance reduction method for pricing the Asian options and its variants

In this paper, we propose a variance reduction method that combines importance sampling and control variates to price European Arithmetic Asian options and its variants (i.e., Asian options plus knock-in or knock-out options) under the Black-Scholes model. The numerical results show that the proposed methods are especially efficient under the following scenarios: in the money, low volatility, more sampling dates, and higher barrier thresholds.     

Land pressures,the evolution of farming systems,and development strategies in Africa: A synthesis

Evidence assembled in this special issue of Food Policy shows that rising rural population densities in parts of Africa are profoundly affecting farming systems and the region’s economies in ways that are underappreciated in current discourse on African development issues. This study synthesizes how people, markets and governments are responding to rising land pressures in Africa, drawing on key findings from the various contributions in this special issue. The papers herein revisit the issue of Boserupian agricultural intensification as an important response to land constraints, but they also go further than Boserup and her followers to explore broader responses to land constraints, including non-farm diversification, migration, and reduced fertility rates. Agricultural and rural development strategies in the region will need to more fully anticipate the implications of Africa’s rapidly changing land and demographic situation, and the immense challenges that mounting land pressures pose in the context of current evidence of unsustainable agricultural intensification, a rapidly rising labor force associated with the region’s current demographic conditions, and limited nonfarm job creation. These challenges are manageable but will require explicit policy actions to address the unique development challenges in densely populated rural areas.     

Auction winning,social dynamics and non-compliance in a payment for ecosystem services scheme in Indonesia

Conservation auctions for payment for ecosystem services (PES) are useful to identify the levels of incentives that will cover the opportunity costs of farmers supplying ecosystem services. Although auctions are increasingly used for allocation in PES schemes, the factors that lead to their successful implementation and eventual environmental outcomes are poorly understood in developing countries. We investigated the socio-economic and institutional contexts that led to smallholders' auction winning and eventual compliance using linear mixed-effects models, and post-auction and post-contract surveys. We employed a case study of a conservation contract preceded by a sealed-bid, multiple round, uniform price auction for watershed services from coffee farmers in Lampung, Indonesia. The auction participants presented low education levels, low asset endowments and small plot sizes. The study obtained evidence that farmers with larger plot areas were more likely to win the contracts, suggesting economies of scale. Most farmers considered the auction a fair self-selection mechanism to allocate contracts where allocation was not influenced by power or social rank. Non-compliance was associated with labor availability constraints, short duration of land ownership and existence of previous conservation applications, suggesting lax of capability to invest in applying conservation agriculture. Final bids were however not good predictors of compliance, among other factors, calling into question the potential of auctions to elicit the actual incentive from the farmers. Ensuring that farmers understand the purposes of auctions for effective contract allocation beyond a mere game and identifying farmers that might encounter difficulties fulfilling the contract could increase the likelihood that such a PES scheme would be successful.     

西部大开发对西部地区碳排放演变的影响

西部大开发后西部地区经济增长加快、人民生活水平提高，但产业结构、技术水平以及生态环境质量却并未表现出同等程度的改善或提升。采用30个样本省份1995—2011年的面板数据，运用双重差分法进行分析，结果发现：西部大开发在促进西部地区经济增长以及地区经济趋同的同时，也使得西部地区的碳排放（尤其是人均碳排放）与其他地区相比增长更快，与此同时，西部地区与碳排放相关的因素和条件（如产业结构、技术水平、市场化程度等）未得到显著改善。在既有的资源禀赋、发展阶段、产业结构以及经济发展方式下，西部大开发初期着力于固定资产投资和资源、能源开发，忽视教育事业、市场化改革、技术创新等软环境建设，导致西部地区在经济增长的同时碳排放相对增加。因此，在今后的西部大开发规划中，应当着力于转变经济发展方式，加强软环境建设，重视人力资本积累和技术创新，提升市场化水平，才能在发展地区经济的同时实现节能减排。     

建设用地减量化过程中的土地指标市场化机制研究——以上海市为例

研究目的:基于上海市建设用地减量化的政策背景,分析上海市土地指标交易现状与存在的问题,探讨如何建立土地指标市场化交易机制,为上海市土地利用制度改革提供经验借鉴。研究方法:文献研究法、比较分析法和实地调查法。研究结果:上海市土地指标交易存在交易半径较狭小、市场化程度较低、定价机制不合理、收益分配不完善等一系列问题,应研究市场竞争与政府调控相结合的指标交易机制。研究结论:针对经济快速发展与土地指标短缺的现实矛盾,上海市政府应从机制构建与配套措施两方面进行土地指标市场化交易体系建设,以推动上海市土地市场的发展。     

Sodium content in foods: Brazilian consumers’ opinions,subjective knowledge and purchase intent

This study attempted to gain insights on Brazilian consumers’ subjective knowledge of sodium content in processed and homemade foods and their purchase intent for products with reduced‐sodium content. A questionnaire was distributed to 409 consumers selected by convenience quota sampling. We found that Brazilian consumers were concerned about the amount of salt (sodium chloride) in the products they consumed, regardless of educational levels, income, age, lifestyles, or health conditions. However, they still considered their consumption to be above WHO‐recommended limits and had little subjective knowledge about the term ‘sodium’. While processed products were considered the main contributors of high‐sodium intake, participants were not concerned about addition of salt at the table and salt in homemade food. The majority of respondents rarely read the sodium content on food labels; however, men and older individuals were more likely to read label information on sodium content. Products with reduced sodium were found to have market appeal, which justifies investments in research to develop these products. Therefore, in addition to the efforts to reduce sodium in the processed‐food industry, it is necessary to promote awareness about the importance of food labelling, especially sodium content, and the need to reduce salt in homemade food and additions during meals.